Here are some thoughts on various players as training camp begins, some players are holding out, others are injured and some are coming back from injury.
Aaron Rodgers has returned and has a noticeable size difference in his left calf, which is the side he tore his Achilles. Not overly concerning. He doesn’t rush anymore, but he still has the arm strength and elite mental skills to help Garrett Wilson become a top five monster.
Several of the San Francisco 49ers are already including Ricky Pearsall, Isaac Guerendo and Jacob Cowing. I expect Pearsall to be back next week, but Guerendo and Cowing could miss a couple weeks which will set their learning and timelines back. Brandon Aiyuk is holding out and I have no idea how this situation is going to play out.
People are sleeping on Keenan Allen. He’s primed for a MONSTER 2024 season as he will always be open and Caleb Williams will look for him early and often. Forget the age, go get him, reach for him if you have to as your WR2.
OC Kellen Moore made CeeDee Lamb a beast in 2022 and Keenan Allen in 2023, now it’s DeVonta Smith’s turn. Expect a ton of pre-snap motions and Hurts looking for Smith. Smith could put up WR1 numbers but is priced as a WR2. He has yet to miss a game due to injury in his first 3 years.
Garrett Wilson is going to challenge for the WR1 overall if he and Rodgers both stay healthy. Wilson is elite in success rate versus man, zone and press coverage. He ran the most routes in 2023 (666), he was 4th in targets (168), and 7th in target share (30.1%). Now he has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him. Whatever the season-long prop TD bet is, take the over. I am.
I’m still not sure what to make of this Bengals backfield. With Mixon now in Houston, it appears that Zack Moss will split/fight with Chase Brown for touches. Moss has struggled with injuries so don’t spend too much on him. It’s a wait and see for me right now.
I was genuinely astonished when Troy Franklin kept falling during the draft. He is one of only 3 rookie WRs to average 3.00+ YPRR in a college season and declare early. The other two are Marvin Harrison Jr., and Malik Nabers. He’s essentially free and playing with his college QB, so the rapport is a given. Courtland Sutton should be the WR1, and Marvin Mims Jr. the WR2, but Franklin only really has to battle Josh Reynolds for targets. Perfect late round add with loads of upside.
I have zero interest in Zamir White. Not only has he torn his ACL twice, but in the 4 games he started in 2023 they all came against teams ranked 21st or lower in run defense DVOA (℅ @GuruFantasyWrld). He’s nothing special, will be volume dependent and I’d rather have guys with higher upside.
If Andy Reid lines up Xavier Worthy in the X spot for the Chiefs, watch out. In college Worthy ran 48% of his routes at the X position and his YPRR was 2.98 and he had a 30.4% target PRR. On all other routes his rates were 1.71 and 26%. Worthy also has the 2nd best YPRR against press coverage out of all the WRs drafted in 1st round since 2017, second only to Devonta Smith. Info courtesy of @Jagibbs_23. He will be joining Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, as well as Travis Kelce. This Chiefs offense might be the best we’ve ever seen from Mahomes so far. Yes that even includes the Tyreek Hill years.
Speaking of Rashee Rice, there are rumblings that his initial court date isn’t until December. If that’s the case, the NFL is unlikely to punish him in 2024, as I think it’s unlikely they penalize him without knowing the full extent of the crime. He is the WR1 in this offense and is currently being discounted because of the unknown of possible suspension. Reap the rewards and secure him as a WR3 with WR1 upside.
People are sleeping on Curtis Samuel. His ADP is currently at WR49, a WR4, but he’s really only competing with Khalil Shakir and rookie Keon Coleman for WR targets. Yes Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox and MVS are there too. He will take handoffs out of the backfield and was grossly missed in Washington. Would not be surprised if he finished as the WR1 for the Bills this year.
Jordan Addison has been involved with a couple different situations with the law since arriving in the NFL. His most recent DUI arrest, I would not be surprised if he gets suspended a couple games. I was already off him because I expect some regression, but now he’s on my Do Not Draft list.
I’ve been keeping a tally of Injuries that you can. follow along with on the website, click the tab ‘Injury Report.’
