Here are some of my favorite stats that I’ve read this week:
Tony Pollard in his first eight games of 2023:
6.7% – Avoided tackle rate
2.6 — Yards after contact per rush
Pollard’s final nine 2023 games:
28.8% – Avoided tackle rate
3.2 — Yards after contact per rush
(@jagibbs_23)
Take Home Point: Pollard was still recovering from his late 2022 ankle injury early in 2023, but by the last 9 games he looked much better. Sleeper for 2024, great RB2 value for a guy who finished as the RB8 in 2022.
Expecting one of biggest schematic changes this season to come from #Titans.
Had 3+ WRs on the field just 58% of the time last season, 25th in NFL.
- Replace Derrick Henry with two space RBs
- Bring in Brian Callahan, whose Bengals had 3+ WRs on field 78% last season (3rd-most)
- Give Calvin Ridley $50M guaranteed, add Tyler Boyd, hang onto DeAndre Hopkins + Treylon Burks
(@adamlevitan)
Take Home Point: Values up for Pollard, Spears, Ridley, Hopkins, Boyd & Levis. I like Boyd as a late sleeper.
The Cincinnati Bengals ran the 2nd and 4th highest% of 11-personnel over the last two seasons under Brian Callahan.
Tyler Boyd had the 4th most targets from the slot last year (6th in 2022).
Boyd is now with Callahan in Tennessee.
Current ADP: WR83
Deep league alert
(@DrewDavenportFF)
Take Home Point: Callahan now in TEN, Tyler Boyd is basically free, and there’s a good chance he will be serviceable. Unless you’re in a 10 team league or super shallow, I wouldn’t leave your draft without Boyd.
Catchable throw rate on attempts 10+ yards downfield
Top 10:
Tua Tagovailoa – 73.8%
Jared Goff – 73.5%
Brock Purdy – 73.3%
Kirk Cousins – 71.8%
Dak Prescott – 71.4%
Jalen Hurts – 70.7%
Lamar Jackson – 70.6%
Joe Burrow – 69.7%
Russell Wilson – 69.0%
Patrick Mahomes – 68.7%
Bottom 6:
Justin Fields – 60.6%
Baker Mayfield – 59.2%
Bryce Young – 59%
Joe Flacco – 58%
Kyler Murray – 57.5%
Will Levis – 56.7%
(@FantasyDataPts)
Take Home Point: Tua throws the best deep ball in the NFL. Tyreek & Waddle are top 10 WRs as a result, but don’t sleep on Malik Washington. I have no faith in OBJ.
The bottom 6 is particularly concerning, especially for Kyler Murray and Will Levis. Murray got a monster in Marvin Harrison Jr., so maybe that boosts his deep throw rate. Levis has lots of weapons but struggles to throw a good deep ball plus his OLine is one of the worst in the league.
Avoided tackle rate leaders at RB in 2023:
35.6% – Jaylen Warren
28.8% – James Conner
28.2% – De’Von Achane
26.0% – Tyjae Spears
25.8% – Raheem Mostert
25.6% – Kenneth Walker
25.0% – Khalil Herbert
24.3% – Bijan Robinson
24.0% – Travis Etienne
22.4% – Kyren Williams
22.1% – Christian McCaffrey
22.0% – Jahmyr Gibbs
(@jagibbs_23)
Take Home Point: Multiple lists have shown that Jaylen Warren is super elusive, and the Steelers upgraded their OLine. He’s a solid RB2/flex, and should get lots of work with Arthur Smith there.
I love James Conner this year, great value. As is Tyjae Spears and Raheem Mostert. Achane is a hyper efficient stud but I have injury concerns.
When on the field together through the first eight weeks:
(Downs injured his knee in Week 9 and was notably less efficient from that point on)
Targets
61 – Pittman
56 – Downs
Receiving yards
473 – Downs
422 – Pittman
PPR points
99.3 – Downs
93.2 – Pittman
(@jagibbs_23)
Take Home Point: Don’t sleep on Josh Downs. Richardson and then Minshew targeted him a ton before he suffered his knee injury. He should be 100% and a great WR3/flex option. The Colts offense should be pretty concentrated: AR, JT, Pittman, Downs & a sprinkle of Jelani Woods and Adonai Mitchell.
Q: How does McLaughlin affect this?
A: He’s competing with Blake Watson for the“joker” role.
Jaleel is small and has had some big issues in pass protection, will be tough for him to carve out a snap share larger than 25-30%.
(@coachspeakindex)
Take Home Point: I’m a big fan of McLaughlin, very elusive and Javonte Williams’ knee injury was the worst possible combo of ACL tear. I have concerns that he may never return to preinjury level. Comments like these concern me, but as a RB3/flex, I think McLaughlin has sneaky upside
Since 2011 RBs after ACL tears improved year 2 post-op in
*Missed tackles forced/att +17%
*Yards created/att +9%
*Receptions/ game +39%
Javonte may be undervalued depending on his pass game involvement
(@FBInjuryDoc)
Take Home Point: What Edwin posts about here is what I’ve experienced too. The first year after tearing their ACL for a RB is rough, and is the rule. Breece Hall last year was the exception. Look at the improvements. Breece could be even better, if he’s not the RB1 it’s only because he got injured, it’s him vs. CMC vs. Bijan. Henry & Saquon close too.
I have concerns about Javonte Williams’ specific ACL injury, but in general he should be 30-40% better than last year when he finished as the RB29. In his rookie season he was the RB17. As mentioned above, McLaughlin is elusive but he’s only 5’7” and 187 lbs, he’s not big enough to handle a big workload.
One of my fav stats-Barkley has run the ball a grand total of 19 times in his entire 6 yr career in the 4th Q up > 8 pts.
PHI RBs have received 109 carries up>8 in the 4th just the L2 yrs alone.
Add in the huge OL gap btw NY & [PHI] & he’s going to explode imo
(@Clevta)
Take Home Point: This year I’m a big fan of Saquon Barkley. He has a chance to finish as the RB1 if he doesn’t miss too many games due to injury, definitely top 5. The elite offensive line (top 3) should help, plus the garbage time touches. I think he’s got 3-4 more solid years left in him.
Over the past 10 seasons, there have been eight instances of a WR:
– running 300+ routes
– averaging 3.00+ yards per route run
In 2023, Nico Collins became the youngest to do it.
(@jagibbs_23)
Take Home Point: When you’re in the same breath as Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk and Cooper Aiyuk then you’re doing something right. Don’t sleep on Nico Collins, he’s ELITE. What’s crazy is he’s currently going as the WR18, so you can get him as your WR2. He’s a WR1. Draft him and watch Stroud target him early & often.
Nico Collins YPRR 2nd
Fantasy PPG 7th
3.37 YPRR ranks 6th in last decade
- 3rd Yards Per Target
- 4th Points per Route
These point to another ELITE 2024 season for Nico Collins even w healthy Dell & acquisition of
Diggs
(@DynastyDadFF)
Take Home Point: Further validation that the underlying data supports Collins as elite. He’s the WR1 in Houston, and I’m not overly concerned about Stefon Diggs.
Stefon Diggs has been on a steady decline as a press coverage beater and posted a career-low 7.0% first down per route run rate vs. press in 2023:
2017 Minnesota Vikings 1D/RR 11.5% YPRR 2.02
2018Minnesota Vikings 1D/RR 9.3% YPRR 1.76
2019 Minnesota Vikings 1D/RR 8.8% YPRR 2.18
2020 Buffalo Bills 1D/RR 14.6% YPRR 3.21
2021 Buffalo Bills 1D/RR 9.2% YPRR 1.74
2022 Buffalo Bills 1D/RR 11.5% YPRR 2.02
2023 Buffalo Bills 1D/RR 7.0% YPRR 1.86
(@jagibbs_23)
Take Home Point: Diggs is in his age 30 season, and it appears his decline has begun. As witnessed by his 1D/RR and YPRR. He still finished as the WR9 but he only had double digit fantasy games after W9. Now he finds himself in Houston as the 2nd or likely 3rd option.
I doubt he sees 150+ targets. His ADP is appropriate at WR33 but I’d rather have Mike Evans or Davante Adams over him.
“This is an article that I will likely be doing every week until the season starts. There’s so much good content on Twitter, this is just a small piece.”
